Lilian Miles, Professor of Sustainability and Social Enterprise at the University of Westminster, was Co-Investigator on a study funded by the EU Asylum, Migration and Integration Fund on asylum seeker decision-making in journeys to the UK. The research findings have been published by the Home Office, which offer recommendations for policymaking on asylum intake and reducing dangerous journeys to the UK, addressing irregular entry of asylum seekers and tackling organised crime.

The Home Office has recently published a 2022 study led by Principal Investigator Dr Sherine El Taraboulsi-McCarthy, then Director of NatCen International, and Co-Investigator Professor Miles, Co-Director of Westminster’s Research Centre on Peripheral Populations. Also on the research team was Dr Serena Masino, Senior Lecturer in International Development and Economics at Westminster’s School of Organisations, Economy and Society.
Their study involved an extensive review of academic and policy reports as well as in-depth key stakeholder interviews to examine asylum seeker decision-making through an analysis of the contextual factors, processes, policies and practices that influence behaviours and decisions in journeys to the UK.
Overall, study findings confirmed that asylum seeker decision-making cannot be attributed to a single factor or even a set of factors alone. Asylum seekers may make choices, but they are constrained by various factors determined by context, time and evolving circumstances. They make numerous difficult decisions, often relating not only to their own future but also those of their children and family members; decisions which can change across the migratory journey, often in unpredictable ways.
Therefore, the study recommended that the Home Office consider complexity theory – an approach that emphasises interactions between various factors and feedback loops that constantly change – in policymaking and engagement in asylum processes. The study also recommended investing in expanding data infrastructure on asylum to capture in-depth data to better understand asylum seekers’ needs, vulnerabilities, experiences and decision-making throughout their journeys to the UK.
The study was published on 22 May, shortly after the release of the Government’s White Paper on Restoring Control over the Immigration System, which was published on 12 May and updated on 6 June. Its publication at this juncture positions the study as a valuable contribution to the Government’s evidence base, offering insights that can inform immigration policy development.
About the study Professor Miles said: "Asylum seeker decision-making is not well understood. In our study, spanning a year's research and empirical work, we developed a multidimensional decision-making model, to illustrate the complex interconnections and feedback mechanisms at macro, meso and micro levels which influence how asylum seeker decision-making unfolds."
This research directly contributes to several of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) including 10: Reduced Inequalities, 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions and 17: Partnerships for the Goals. Since 2019, the University of Westminster has used the SDGs holistically to frame strategic decisions to help students and colleagues fulfil their potential and contribute to a more sustainable, equitable and healthier society.
Find out more about the Research Centre on Peripheral Populations at the University of Westminster.