Dr Ioannis Glinavos, Senior Lecturer in Law at the University of Westminster, has published a blog post on the Huffington Post Blog about the impact of triggering Article 50 on British trades.

Brexit Minister David Davis recently expressed his opinion on Brexit’s impact on Britain: “I can’t quantify it for you in detail yet. I may well be able to do so in about a year’s time. It is certainly the case that it is not as frightening frankly as some people think.”

Following this statement, Dr Ioannis Glinavos published a blog post outlining the “likely consequences of a no-deal Brexit on businesses and consumers.”

He first explained the consequences that could affect consumers. Without a trade-deal with the EU, goods would no longer be in free circulation, meaning that customers, who would wish to buy goods from a European country, would have to pay certain taxes such as high customs duties, import VAT and handling fees. He added: “The consequence is that buyers may well seek a domestically manufactured lamp instead. Wouldn’t this be a great thing for local manufacturers, offsetting economic losses suffered by importers? It might, but it is likely that the domestic lamp manufacturer does not source all their materials locally. They would also need to consider VAT and custom duty charges on the components they import to make their lamps.”

Similarly, he also explained that triggering Article 50 could have the same effect on British goods sellers. “The same factors that will make a British customer think twice about ordering a French lamp will deter a French customer from ordering a British one. Increased demand from local customers will be probably offset by increasing costs of manufacture and a loss of market share in Europe.”

When concluding the article, regarding Minister David Davis’s recent statement, Dr Glinavos wrote: “Were Britain to unilaterally drop tariffs to zero for EU countries, it would be obliged to do the same for the rest of the world. Worryingly, the rest of the world would not reciprocate, as they could not offer preferential treatment to Britain, to the exclusion of everyone else. […] Perhaps we should ask Mr Davis what his government will do and whether he still thinks a no-deal scenario is not very frightening.”

Read the full article on the Huffington Post website.

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